The Perils of Nuclear Talks After the US‐Israel War on Iran

Abstract In June 2025, Israel bombed Iranian nuclear facilities, military commanders and scientists, and civilian areas, with assistance from the United States—Washington's first foray into conventional warfare against the Islamic Republic. This triggered debates in Iran about the merits of building a weapons‐grade atomic program. This study contends that Iranian elites have historically sought to maintain a fluid scheme that lacks easily enforceable nonproliferation parameters, using negotiations and the threat of conflict to buy time and build up the nuclear program. Despite setbacks from the Israeli and American attacks, Tehran is continuing this strategy and holding onto power against hegemonic pressures from the United States. The article examines Iran's moves since the conclusion of the June war and its demands in the early stages of revived negotiations. It then probes the history of the nuclear crisis to determine lessons that should inform future talks. Ultimately, though this is unlikely, peaceful ties will require Washington to rebalance its approach to Israel and Iran. The Trump administration and its successors will have to consider incentives for Iran's elites to channel their preference for regime survival into a greater openness toward the West. Otherwise, the trajectory of US‐Iran relations will remain conflictual.