Responses of the East Asian Winter Climate to Global Warming in CMIP6 Models

Global warming has been altering the East Asian climate at an unprecedented rate since the 20th century. In order to evaluate the changes in the East Asian winter climate (EAWC) and support policy-making for climate mitigation and adaptation strategies, this paper utilizes the multimodel ensemble from the Couple Model Intercomparison Project 6 and a temperature threshold method to investigate the EAWC changes during the period 1979–2100. The results show that the EAWC has been undergoing widespread and robust changes in response to global warming. The winter length in East Asia has shortened and will continue shortening owing to later onsets and earlier withdrawals, leading to a drastic contraction in length from 100 days in 1979 to 43 days (27 days) in 2100 under SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5). While most regions of the East Asian continent are projected to become warmer in winter, the Japan and marginal seas of northeastern Asia will face the risks from colder winters with more frequent extreme cold events, accompanied by less precipitation. Meanwhile, the Tibetan Plateau is very likely to have colder winters in the future, though its surface snow amounts will significantly decline. Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are found to be responsible for the EAWC changes. GHG traps heat inside the Earth’s atmosphere and notably increases the air temperature; moreover, its force modulates large-scale atmospheric circulation, facilitating an enhanced and northward-positioned Aleutian low together with a weakened Siberian high, East Asian trough, and East Asian jet stream. These two effects work together, resulting in a contracted winter with robust and uneven regional changes in the EAWC. This finding highlights the urgency of curbing GHG emissions and improving forecasts of the EAWC, which are crucial for mitigating their major ecological and social impacts.