To address the pressing challenges facing global agriculture—including resource constraints, structural labour shortages, and climate change adaptation—exploring pathways for digital transformation is crucial for safeguarding regional food security and advancing sustainable agricultural development. Taking China’s Yangtze River Economic Belt as a case study, this research aims to dissect the interplay between the digital economy, new-quality agricultural productivity, and agricultural modernisation. Utilising panel data from 11 provinces and municipalities spanning 2013–2023, the study employs an entropy-weighted approach to construct a composite indicator system for these three core variables. Panel data analysis comprehensively employs random effects models, mediation effect tests, robustness checks, and heterogeneity analyses. Empirical results indicate that the digital economy exerts a significant positive driving effect on new-quality agricultural productivity. Mediation tests further reveal that agricultural modernisation plays a crucial mediating role in this relationship. Heterogeneity analysis finds that the promotional effect of the digital economy exhibits distinct regional gradient characteristics, being most pronounced in growth zones, followed by leading zones, and weakest in starting zones. These findings support the formulation of differentiated agricultural digitalization policies: Leading areas should focus on deep integration of AI and agricultural big data; growth zones require investments in scaling intelligent irrigation and UAV plant protection; and start-up areas should prioritize digital infrastructure and large-scale farmer digital literacy training to establish transformation foundations.
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