High-resolution climate projections are essential for regional risk assessment; however, Earth System Models (ESMs) operate at scales far too coarse for local impacts. This review examines how machine learning (ML) downscaling can bridge this divide and addresses a key knowledge gap: how to achieve reliable, physically consistent downscaling under future climate change. This article synthesizes ML downscaling developments from 2010 to 2025, spanning early statistical methods to modern deep learning (e.g., convolutional neural networks (CNNs), generative adversarial networks (GANs), diffusion models, and transformers). The analysis introduces a new taxonomy of model families and frames the discussion around the “performance paradox”—the tendency for models with excellent historical skill to falter under non-stationary climate shifts. Our analysis finds that convolutional approaches efficiently capture spatial structure but tend to smooth out extremes, whereas generative models better reproduce high-intensity events at the cost of greater complexity. The study also highlights emerging solutions like physics-informed models and improved uncertainty quantification to tackle persistent issues of physical consistency and trust. Finally, the synthesis outlines a practical roadmap for operational ML downscaling, emphasizing standardized evaluation, out-of-distribution stress tests, and hybrid physics–ML approaches to bolster confidence in future projections.
Najafi et al. (Wed,) studied this question.