Life on New Earth: biodiversity change and humanity in a novel future

Abstract Accounting for ecological novelty, gains and past human experiences through social–ecological–technological systems (SETS) can help society navigate accelerating global biodiversity change. Popular narratives stress escalating loss of species and ecosystems, and the potential collapse of the benefits they provide to people. In the public sphere, this can present the spectre of an uninhabitable Earth and the extinction of the human species. Research suggests that these crisis narratives can raise awareness, but are counterproductive in stimulating mitigating or adaptive action. They also omit evidence of biodiversity gains and ongoing adaptation alongside losses. Archaeological evidence also highlights the human ability to take advantage of and thrive under an extremely wide range of changing and challenging ecological conditions and the provisioning opportunities these provide. This perspective provides an evidenced counterargument to claims of civilizational collapse amid environmental change. Projections show that rather than universal ecological decline, a cosmopolitan biosphere of losses and gains will probably emerge. Distilled, these insights provoke a new research agenda, centred on how we measure, frame and imagine alternative futures so that we can systematically explore pathways and scenarios for a just and thriving humanity on a climatically and ecologically transforming Earth. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The biosphere in the Anthropocene’.