Archetypes of the Technology S-Curve

The S-curve model is widely used to describe the typical trajectory of technological performance over time, characterized by slow initial progress, a phase of rapid improvement, and eventual stagnation. However, empirical studies indicate that many development trajectories deviate from this pattern. This paper proposes a typology of six ideal-type S-curve archetypes that reflect the variety of observed development paths: the classic S-curve, early breakthrough, delayed breakthrough, steady mover, rejuvenated plateau, and non-starter. The typology is developed using a theory-building approach based on conceptual reasoning and grounded in existing literature. It provides a structured framework for analyzing technological development in contexts where quantitative data are limited or fragmented. The archetypes are intended to support early-stage technology assessment and strategic decision-making by offering a common basis for comparison across cases. Rather than predicting specific outcomes, the framework enables a systematic interpretation of development patterns and helps to identify recurring dynamics in technology evolution.