Deliverable 3.1 EU-Level CAPRI Impact Assessment for the Organic Sector

Achieving the European Union’s target of 25% organic farmland by 2030 is a cornerstone of the Farm-to-Fork and Biodiversity Strategies under the European Green Deal. Meeting this objective requires a profound transformation of European agriculture within a very short timeframe and across highly diverse national and regional contexts. Policymakers face two central challenges: understanding how organic expansion may unfold spatially under different drivers and assessing the economic and environmental implications of such a transition. This report addresses both challenges by combining a novel projection framework for organic area expansion with a comprehensive modelling of sectoral impacts using the CAPRI model.