Uncertainty amplifies the impact of scarcity on delay of gratification: evidence from a serious game experiment

Abstract Individuals facing economic scarcity often struggle with delaying gratification, a pattern typically attributed to cognitive load, self-control, or risk preferences. However, the role of uncertainty remains underexplored. This study tests the preregistered hypothesis that uncertainty intensifies the negative effects of scarcity on delay of gratification. In a between-subjects experiment with Colombian participants (N = 230; M age = 24.4; 58% female), we used a web-based serious game simulating economic decision-making under resource scarcity or abundance. After condition exposure, participants received one of three interventions: (1) direct resource provision, (2) insurance to reduce uncertainty, or (3) no intervention. Delay of gratification was assessed using real monetary incentives aligned with participants’ economic choices. Results showed that participants in abundance were significantly more likely to delay gratification than those in scarcity. Among scarcity-exposed participants, uncertainty reduction significantly improved delay of gratification, matching the effect of resource provision. In contrast, participants in abundance were unaffected by uncertainty-reducing interventions. These findings suggest that uncertainty amplifies the effects of scarcity rather than influencing future-oriented decision-making universally. Reducing uncertainty may thus serve as a scalable behavioural intervention to support future-oriented decision-making in economically vulnerable populations.