The impact of the Tigray war on child education and labor in Ethiopia

• Examines education and child labor impacts of the 2020–2022 Tigray War. • Uses panel survey and geocoded conflict data in a Difference-in-Differences design. • Conflict exposure reduces school attendance, especially for boys and low-SES children. • Conflict raises unpaid labor for boys, including state-led mobilization. • Conflict-driven insecurity and mobilization likely disrupted boys’ education. This study provides the first empirical evidence on the impact of the Tigray War on children’s education and child labor in Ethiopia. We combine panel data from the 2018/19 and 2021/22 waves of the Ethiopian Socioeconomic Survey with geocoded conflict data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project. The analysis focuses on children aged 7–18 across Ethiopia, excluding Tigray due to data limitations and endogeneity concerns. We estimate a Difference-in-Differences model with child fixed effects to compare pre- and post-war outcomes based on proximity to conflict events. Results show that children near conflict zones were significantly less likely to attend school or plan future enrollment with effects concentrated among boys. Conflict exposure also increased child labor, particularly unpaid work for other households and state-led labor among boys. Further analysis and anecdotal evidence suggest that insecurity and state mobilization contributed to boys’ labor participation, ultimately disrupting their education.