Carbon Emission Pinch Analysis for Transformation of Polish Power Generation Sector

Abstract Poland is taking serious measures to decarbonize its electricity generation sector by year 2050 in response to the global climate emergency. However, the pathway to reach this carbon neutrality target is still uncertain, given Poland’s current dependence on fossil fuels. Different decarbonization measures need to be examined and combined to achieve substantial reductions. In this work, carbon emission pinch analysis (CEPA) is used to plan and visualize deep emissions cuts for such a transition. Multiple scenarios were proposed in order for Polish energy generation sector to reach its CO2 emission targets in years 2030 and 2040. For instance, in Scenario 1, relative to 2022, coal was reduced by 36 times, and lignite was eliminated completely; while natural gas, onshore wind, agricultural biomass, photovoltaics have huge increase (238%, 154%, 235%, 301%, respectively), apart from having additional nuclear and offshore wind power (38 TWh and 61 TWh, respectively). Doing this achieves the 2040 emission target of 28.06 Mt CO2-eq/year. These results provide realistic benchmarks for the development and implementation of policies to realize Poland’s decarbonization ambitions.