Strategic pathways to sustainable energy: Carbon emission pinch analysis for Bangladesh's electricity sector

Balancing burgeoning energy demands in the electricity sector while curbing carbon emissions poses a formidable challenge for emerging economies like Bangladesh, which is heavily reliant on fossil fuels. Despite the country's power system master plan (PSMP) until 2041 and submitted intended nationally determined contributions (INDC) to tackle mounting energy needs and associated emissions, the PSMP lacks specific emission reduction strategies. Thus, this study employs carbon emission pinch analysis to facilitate Bangladesh's long-term energy planning, highlighting emission reduction hurdles. This research aims to set emission limits, delineate fossil fuel and carbon-neutral source (i.e., zero emission during operation) compositions, ascertain carbon-neutral source ranges for targeted emissions, and propose viable carbon-neutral sources to meet escalating energy demands. Three scenarios are extensively explored: fulfilling INDC mandates, a 10% increase in renewable energy, and maintaining 2035 emission levels in 2040. The analysis unveils emission limits of 55 758.83 and 84 778.61 × 109 grams of CO2 equivalent for 2025 and 2030, respectively. Projections indicate a foreseen 10% surge in renewable energy by 2035, elevating its share to 18.16%. Carbon-neutral energy sources, encompassing solar, wind, hydroelectricity, biomass, and nuclear, are estimated to cover 56.06% of energy demand by 2040, driving a 33.30% emissions reduction.