Low-carbon transformation for power systems is crucial for achieving the carbon reduction targets outlined in the Paris Agreement. However, significant disparities in resource endowments and levels of development across different regions present considerable challenges for planners in formulating transformation plans that are appropriately tailored to local conditions. To confront this challenge, a multi-source integrated regional power systems planning model is developed, accounting for regional differences and the temporal evolution of generation technologies. This model is used to identify the most cost-effective low-carbon planning pathway for power systems, while also analyzing the sensitivity intensity of key factors influencing capacity planning and emission intensity. Taking a coastal province of China as a case study, three carbon emission constraint scenarios are studied: a basic scenario (BA), a carbon neutral scenario (PN), and a rapid carbon neutral scenario (RA). The results indicate that by 2050, under more stringent constraints, PN and RA scenarios would require reductions in carbon emissions of 1752. 4 and 2105. 3 Mt, respectively, compared to the BA scenario. The development of clean energy is expected to accelerate significantly. By 2050, under the PN and RA scenarios, the installed capacity of clean energy will be 29. 0% and 34. 1% higher, respectively, than under the BA scenario, while power generation will increase by 36. 0% and 41. 2%, respectively. However, the total investment under the PN and RA scenarios will be 37. 7 billion and 41. 0 billion higher, respectively, than that under the BA scenario.
Hu et al. (Mon,) studied this question.
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