Interplay of TP53 allelic state, blast count, and complex karyotype on survival of patients with AML and MDS

Several clinical and genetic factors impact overall survival (OS) in myelodysplastic neoplasms (MDS) and acute myeloid leukemia (AML), including complex karyotype (CK), TP53 allelic state, and blast count. We analyzed the interplay of these factors by performing Cox regression analysis and by determining the frequency of TP53 single-hit (sh) and double-hit (dh) events and OS in MDS (n = 747) with <5% blasts, with ≥5% but <10% blasts, and ≥10% but <20% blasts and AML (n = 772). MDS with <5% blasts showed the best outcome, followed by with ≥5% but <10% blasts, and ≥10% but <20% blasts, and AML (median OS: 75, 54, 27, and 18 months, respectively). The same hierarchy was observed when each subgroup was divided into TP53sh, TP53dh, and without TP53 alterations (alt), revealing a dismal outcome of TP53dh in all subgroups (17, 10, 8, and 1 months, respectively). MDS with <5% blasts differed from the other subgroups by showing predominantly TP53sh (76% of TP53alt cases), and by an independent adverse impact of CK on OS (hazard ratio, 5.2; P < .001). The remaining subgroups displayed many similarities, with TP53dh found at high frequencies (67%, 91%, and 71%, respectively) and only TP53alt but not CK independently influencing OS, and TP53dh showing the strongest influence. When the total cohort was split based on TP53 state, only the blast count and not CK had an independent adverse impact on OS in all subgroups. Thus, TP53dh is the strongest prognostic factor, further supporting its integration into risk stratification guidelines and classification as a separate entity. However, the blast count also influences OS independent of TP53 state, whereas CK plays a minor prognostic role.