The Efficiency of the Sustainable Development Policy for Energy Consumption under Environmental Law in Thailand: Adapting the SEM-VARIMAX Model

This research aims to predict the efficiency of the Sustainable Development Policy for Energy Consumption under Environmental Law in Thailand for the next 17 years (2020–2036) and analyze the relationships among causal factors by applying a structural equation modeling/vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables (SEM-VARIMAX Model). This model is effective for analyzing relationships among causal factors and optimizing future forecasting. It can be applied to contexts in different sectors, which distinguishes it from other previous models. Furthermore, this model ensures the absence of heteroskedasticity, multicollinearity, and autocorrelation. In fact, it meets all the standards of goodness of fit. Therefore, it is suitable for use as a tool for decision-making and planning long-term national strategies. With the implementation of the Sustainable Development Policy for Energy Consumption under Environmental Law ( S . D . E L ) , the forecast results derived from the SEM-VARIMAX Model indicate a continuously high change in energy consumption from 2020 to 2036the change exceeds the rate determined by the government. In addition, energy consumption is predicted to have an increased growth rate of up to 185.66% (2036/2020), which is about 397.08 ktoe (2036). The change is primarily influenced by a causal relationship that contains latent variables, namely, the economic factor ( E C O N ) , social factor ( S O C I ) , and environmental factor ( E N V I ) . The performance of the SEM-VARIMAX Model was tested, and the model produced a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 1.06% and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 1.19%. A comparison of these results with those of other models, including the multiple linear regression model (MLR), back-propagation neural network (BP model), grey model, artificial neural natural model (ANN model), and the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA model), indicates that the SEM-VARIMAX model fits and is appropriate for long-term national policy formulation in various contexts in Thailand. This study’s results further indicate the low efficiency of Sustainable Development Policy for Energy Consumption under Environmental Law in Thailand. The predicted result for energy consumption in 2036 is greater than the government-established goal for consumption of no greater than 251.05 ktoe.