Coronary Heart Disease Risk Equivalence in Diabetes Depends on Concomitant Risk Factors

OBJECTIVE: Diabetes has been defined as a coronary heart disease (CHD) risk equivalent, and more aggressive treatment goals have been proposed for diabetic patients. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We studied the influence of single and multiple risk factors on the 10-year cumulative incidence of fatal and nonfatal CHD and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in diabetic and nondiabetic men and women, with and without baseline CHD or CVD, in a population (n = 4,549) with a high prevalence of diabetes. RESULTS: In both sexes, diabetes increased the risk for CHD (hazard ratio 1.99 and 2.93 for men and women, respectively). Diabetic men and women had a 10-year cumulative incidence of CHD of 25.9 and 19.1%, respectively, compared with 57.4 and 58.4% for nondiabetic men and women with previous CHD. The pattern was similar when only fatal events were considered. Diabetic individuals with one or two risk factors had a 10-year cumulative incidence of CHD that was only 1.4 times higher than that of nondiabetic individuals (14%). However, the 10-year incidence of CHD in diabetic subjects with multiple risk factors was >40%, and the incidence of fatal CHD was higher in these subjects than in nondiabetic subjects with previous CHD. Data for CVD showed similar patterns, as did separate analyses by sex. CONCLUSIONS: Our results and comparisons with other available data show wide variation in the rate of CHD in diabetes, depending on the population and existing risk factors. Most individuals had a 10-year cumulative incidence >20%, but only those with multiple risk factors had a 10-year cumulative incidence that was equivalent to that of patients with CHD. Until more data are available, it may be prudent to consider targets based on the entire risk factor profile rather than just the presence of diabetes.