Anthropogenic drivers of forest landscape change in the Nyahua and Ipembampazi Forest Reserves, Tanzania, using multi-decadal land use and land cover analysis

Anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) remains a major threat to miombo woodland ecosystems in sub-Saharan Africa. Yet, limited studies have integrated long-term spatial analysis with socio-economic drivers to explain forest landscape transformation in western Tanzania. This study examined the anthropogenic drivers, patterns, and future trajectories of forest landscape change in the Nyahua and Ipembampazi Forest Reserves in Sikonge District, Tanzania. A convergent mixed-methods approach was employed, combining multi-temporal Landsat imagery (1993–2023), household surveys ( n = 365), focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and field observations. Remote sensing and GIS techniques were used to assess historical land cover dynamics and project future changes to 2053 using a CA-Markov model, while qualitative and quantitative socio-economic data were analysed to explain the human-related drivers underlying observed spatial changes. The findings reveal substantial forest decline over the past three decades, accompanied by rapid expansion of agricultural land, settlements, and degraded areas. Livestock grazing, shifting cultivation, charcoal production, and unregulated settlement expansion emerged as the dominant anthropogenic drivers of landscape transformation. Community narratives and spatial analysis showed that increasing migration, resource dependence, and weak land-use governance have intensified pressure on miombo woodlands. Future projections suggest continued forest degradation and expansion of bare land and settlements if current land-use practices persist. The study demonstrates the value of integrating socio-economic evidence with multi-decadal geospatial analysis to understand complex human–environment interactions shaping forest ecosystems. The findings highlight the need for strengthened participatory forest governance, sustainable livelihood diversification, improved land-use planning, and enhanced enforcement of conservation regulations to support long-term ecological sustainability in miombo forest landscapes.