Human encroachment increasingly undermines the ecological integrity of semi-arid protected areas, yet the socio-ecological mechanisms linking livelihoods to vegetation change remain poorly quantified. This study investigated multiscale vegetation dynamics and their human drivers in the Charara Safari Area, Zimbabwe, to inform sustainable forestry and conservation policy. Using an integrated framework combining Landsat-derived land-use/land-cover data, NDVI analysis, terrain variables, and household-level socio-economic surveys, vegetation changes and their drivers were assessed over two decades. Forest cover exhibited marked instability, with early gains reversed by sustained losses, resulting in a net long-term decline exceeding 80 km2, while cropland expanded by over 60 km2, primarily at protected-area margins. Mean NDVI declined from 0.43 at peak condition to below 0.15 in later years, indicating widespread vegetation degradation. Household data revealed strong associations between agricultural livelihoods, fuelwood-dependent tobacco curing, and spatial patterns of forest loss. The novelty of this study lies in its multiscale integration of livelihood assets with spatial vegetation metrics, moving beyond descriptive remote sensing to identify actionable drivers of degradation. The findings generate new evidence that conservation effectiveness depends on addressing livelihood-energy-forest linkages.
Mukomberanwa et al. (Mon,) studied this question.