Abstract In this study, we propose and evaluate a new framework for understanding “lowest‐low” fertility in East Asia, emphasizing the link between the desire for children and marriage. Recognizing that delayed and declining marriage is the primary reason for low fertility in the region, we posit that marriage decisions are shaped by intentions or incentives (not) to have children. We evaluate this hypothesis using Japan as a case, a society where parenthood is an integral part of the “package” of normative family expectations accompanying marriage, especially for women. After confirming that attitudes toward marriage and fertility are strongly correlated, we estimate discrete‐time hazard models of first marriage using nationally representative longitudinal data. We find that, net of marriage desires, (1) women and men with no desire to have children marry significantly later than those who desire children, and (2) uncertain attitudes toward parenthood are also associated with later marriage for men, but not women. The link between negative or uncertain fertility desires and delayed marriage among men is partially explained by their lower engagement in efforts to find a marriage partner. These results provide insights for policy discussions about declining fertility in East Asia, especially concerns that pro‐natalist policies are mistargeted.
Uchikoshi et al. (2026) studied this question.