Analysis of Macroeconomic Determinants of Development of the Pipeline Transport Sector in the Oil and Gas Industry

This article is devoted to the analysis of macroeconomic determinants of the development of the pipeline transport sector in the oil and gas industry. The pipeline transport sector plays a fundamental role in the functioning of Russian oil and gas companies, since oil and gas pipeline systems ensure cost-effective, sustainable, and reliable transportation of energy resources. The oil and gas industry of the Russian Federation is the industry basis for the formation of the Russian Federation’s GDP, export revenue from the transportation of oil and gas resources. At the same time, pipeline systems are a key infrastructure facility that can be used to combine the processes of extraction, processing, and export of oil and gas resources. Nevertheless, the modern development of the pipeline transport sector is due to a variety of macroeconomic determinants, which it is advisable to analyze within the framework of this scientific study. Increased international sanctions pressure on the modern development of the oil and gas sector, fuel and energy companies of the Russian Federation suggests a reorientation of logistics routes for the transportation of energy resources, a decrease in the dependence of Russian oil and gas companies on European markets. Sustainable development of oil and gas pipelines depends on the stability of the market situation, manifestations of the impact of international sanctions, and the speed of transition to renewable energy sources. The objective of the study is to develop strategic areas of investment activity in the pipeline transport sector of the oil and gas industry of the Russian Federation based on the results of the analysis of macroeconomic determinants. Main results of the study: 1) a model for analyzing macroeconomic determinants of development of the pipeline transport sector in the oil and gas industry of the Russian Federation has been developed; 2) the results of the analysis of the impact of international sanctions on transport logistics in the oil and gas industry of the Russian Federation are presented (reorientation of export flows of oil and gas resources, the result of which is to reduce the dependence of oil and gas companies on European commodity markets); 3) the results of the development of strategic areas of investment activity in the pipeline transport sector of the oil and gas industry of the Russian Federation are reflected, based on the current national projects and programs of budget financing of the oil and gas industry of the Russian Federation. Research materials: statistical data from Rosstat, industry associations of the fuel and energy complex of the Russian Federation for 2015-2024, the largest corporations of the fuel and energy, oil and gas sectors, and the coal industry for the period 2022-2024. Research methods: systematization, comparative analysis, contrastive analysis, analysis of statistical time series, generalization, economic and mathematical modeling, abstract logical method, induction, deduction, systems approach to economic analysis, conceptualization and algorithmization of data, graphical and tabular visualization of data. Main findings of the study: 1) the presented mathematical model for the analysis of macroeconomic determinants of the development of the pipeline transport sector in the oil and gas industry of the Russian Federation contributes to a quantitative assessment of the impact of significant macroeconomic determinants on the modern development of the pipeline transport sector in the Russian Federation. The mathematical model of the analysis takes into account the nonlinearity of the threshold values of prices for oil resources, is adaptive to market volatility in the oil and gas sector, and can also be integrated into the industry strategic concept of the current and future development of organizations in the fuel and energy sector. The results of constructing the mathematical model showed that regional specifics significantly affect the level of investment attractiveness of oil and gas pipelines, the Eastern direction of energy transportation reflects the maximum stability of sales and exports for domestic organizations in the oil and gas sector of the Russian Federation, while the European direction of energy transportation is most sensitive to international sanctions; 2) the impact of international sanctions on the pipeline transport sector of the oil and gas sector of the Russian Federation necessitates the reorientation of export flows of oil and gas resources in order to reduce dependence on European energy markets. The authors presented proposals for the practical testing of new logistics routes for the export of oil and gas resources in 2025-2027; 3) based on the results of the analysis of macroeconomic determinants of the development of the pipeline transport sector in the oil and gas industry of the Russian Federation, the authors presented strategic directions of investment activities in the pipeline transport sector of the oil and gas industry of the Russian Federation, taking into account the implementation of directions of state support for subsidizing interest rates on attracted resources by private investors, the national project “Infrastructure for Life” for the period up to 2030: a mechanism for joint financing of projects for the construction and operation of oil and gas pipelines, their orientation focus on the East Asian direction within the framework of the need to ensure technological sovereignty of the oil and gas industry.