Regional Prediction of Fire Characteristics Using Machine Learning in Australia

Wildfires are increasing in frequency and severity, with Australia’s 2019–2020 Black Summer burning over 18 million hectares. Accurate prediction of wildfire behavior is essential for effective risk assessment and emergency response. This study presents a machine learning framework for predicting wildfire dynamics across Australia’s seven regions using the IBM wildfire dataset. Various Machine Learning (ML) models were evaluated to forecast three key indicators: Fire Area (km2), Fire Brightness Temperature (K), and Fire Radiative Power (MW). Lasso Regression consistently outperformed the other models, achieving an average RMSE of 0.04201 and R2 of 0.29355. Performance varied across regions, with stronger results in areas like New South Wales and Queensland, likely influenced by differences in topography, microclimate, and vegetation. However, limitations include the exclusion of ignition sources such as lightning and human activity, which are critical for capturing the environment accurately and improving predictive accuracy. Future work will integrate these factors alongside more detailed weather and vegetation data. Practical implementation may face challenges related to real-time data availability, system integration, and response coordination, but this approach offers promising potential for operational wildfire decision support.