Socio-Demographic Scenarios for Post-War Recovery of Ukraine

The relevance of the article is justified by the significant need to develop a comprehensive demographic strategy for post-war Ukraine, which is facing unprecedented challenges – population loss, a migration crisis, declining birth rates, and an aging society. In this regard, the aim of the article is to develop potential socio-demographic scenarios for Ukraine’s development in the post-war period, taking into account the consequences of the armed aggression of the russian federation, changes in the population structure, migration trends, birth and death rates, as well as the formulation of policies for restoring human potential as a key component of the sustainable development of the State. The methodological basis of the research included the dialectical method, a systemic approach, methods of abstraction and generalization, scenario analysis methods, structural-factor modeling, statistical forecasting, moving average analysis, and regression analysis. The novelty of the article lies in the scenario approach to assessing the socio-demographic prospects of post-war recovery in Ukraine, which is based on a combination of quantitative forecasting, analysis of migration dynamics, and a systemic view of demographic revival policy. The article analyzes population size, birth rates, mortality rates, and migration processes. Three scenarios for Ukraine’s demographic development by 2050 have been proposed: optimistic, baseline, and pessimistic. The optimistic scenario anticipates population stabilization through the mass return of emigrants, support for birth rates, and active State policy. The baseline scenario reflects a gradual decrease in population under conditions of partial success of the regulatory measures implemented by the State. The pessimistic scenario illustrates a deep demographic crisis amid ongoing negative trends. The growth rates of the population in Ukraine have been analyzed, both with and without taking into account migration, indicating the decisive influence of migration processes on demographics. The distribution of Ukrainian refugees across EU countries following the full-scale invasion by russia is presented, enabling an assessment of repatriation potential. The strategic importance of human capital for Ukraine’s sustainable development is emphasized. It is substantiated that without reforms in the social sphere, employment policy, and healthcare, post-war demographic recovery in Ukraine will be a highly complicated process. A comparative analysis of the gender-age structure of the population in 2000, 2025, and 2050 has been conducted, confirming the trend towards aging, a decline in birth rates, and losses among the youth. The role of State policy in shaping Ukraine’s demographic future is demonstrated. The necessity to create demographic infrastructure is outlined: reintegration centers, housing policies, and healthcare systems. The prospects for applying incentives to return the population to the de-occupied regions of Ukraine are described. It is concluded that a comprehensive approach to post-war demographic recovery is necessary as a foundation for sustainable development in Ukraine amid a migration crisis.