Incubating Terror: The Implications of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine for Global Terrorism

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 accelerated the geopolitical shift towards Great Power competition while further contributing to the waning attention given to transnational terrorism. This study posits that the risks of transnational, regional, and local terrorism, both directly and indirectly stemming from the war in Ukraine, are increasing. To support this assertion, it analyzes recent events and commentary to establish a framework for examining the war’s impact on the trajectories of transnational terrorism. Furthermore, it provides evidence of newly emerging terrorist threat vectors that challenge conventional counterterrorism strategies.