The Impact of Agricultural Green Development on Farmers’ Income Quality in China

As China’s agriculture transitions toward high-quality development, reconciling agricultural green transformation with improved farmers’ income quality has become critical. This study seeks to investigate the effects of agricultural green development on the quality of farmers’ income from three dimensions: direct impact, structural influence, and heterogeneous characteristics. Leveraging provincial panel data from China spanning the period 2011 to 2022, a mixed-methods research design is adopted to conduct empirical analysis. First, the entropy weight method is applied to evaluate the comprehensive development level of agricultural green development and the quality of farmers’ income, along with their respective temporal variation features. On this basis, a two-way fixed effects model is then constructed to examine three core issues: the overall impact of agricultural green development on farmers’ income quality, as well as the structural heterogeneity and spatial heterogeneity characteristics inherent in this impact relationship. The results show that agricultural green development has significantly promoted farmers’ income quality in China, with improved resource utilization efficiency and output quality being the core driving factors, while environmentally friendly practices exhibit a negative effect in the short term. Specifically, agricultural green development significantly enhances income adequacy and structure but has a short-term inhibitory effect on income growth, with no significant impact on knowledge-based income. Regional heterogeneity analysis shows the strongest positive effect in the western region, followed by the eastern region, a negative impact in the northeastern region, and an insignificant effect in the central region. The income-increasing effect of green development is more significant in regions with poor natural resource endowments and low fiscal support for agriculture but is weakened in regions with high market vitality. This study provides a theoretical and practical basis for formulating differentiated agricultural green development policies and improving farmers’ income quality. These findings enrich the theoretical interface between agricultural green transformation and rural income improvement and offer actionable, region-specific policy insights by clarifying the constraints, key links and heterogeneous effects involved.