The box office prediction model based on the optimized XGBoost algorithm in the context of film marketing and distribution

To improve the accuracy and efficiency of box office prediction, this study deeply discusses the application of the optimized eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model in this scenario and its advantages compared with other commonly used machine learning models. By comparing and analyzing five models, involving the Deep Neural Network, Light Gradient Boosting Machine, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Decision Tree, and CatBoost, several key performance indicators such as accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, generalization error, stability, robustness, and adaptability score are comprehensively investigated. The research results reveal that the optimization model proposed in this study is superior to the comparison model in most evaluation indicators, especially when the data volume reaches 2500, showing obvious advantages. For example, the accuracy is increased to 0.9, the F1 score is 0.9, the generalization error is reduced to 0.09, and the stability score is as high as 0.98. The robustness and adaptability scores are both 0.97, which proves its strong prediction ability and high stability and robustness on large-scale datasets. Therefore, this study provides scientific data support and a decision-making basis for the film industry in the formulation of marketing and distribution strategies. Moreover, film producers and distributors can reasonably estimate their market performance early in film shooting, optimize investment decisions, and reduce economic risks through accurate box office predictions.