Modelling Growth Strategies of Transport Enterprises in the Conditions of Context Uncertainty

Modern military conditions and tasks of post-war reconstruction require the development of effective strategies for the activity of transport enterprises of Ukraine to ensure the continuity of supplies of military and humanitarian goods. The purpose of the research was to create a model for the selection of optimal strategies for the development of transport enterprises of Ukraine in the conditions of uncertainty caused by the simultaneous influence of military aggression and the deepening of transport integration of Ukraine with the EU. The Saaty's method was selected for the study, which is based on the construction of fuzzy functions and is the most relevant in the context of the influence of a significant number of unstable exogenous and endogenous factors on the functioning of enterprises. In consideration of the evolving landscape of transportation in the European Union and Ukraine, the authors have distilled the overarching objectives of sustainable transportation development (economic, social, and environmental) into eighteen sub-objectives pertaining to the advancement of enterprises. These objectives are then subjected to expert evaluation. The article presents the findings of this expert ranking exercise, delineating the priorities for transportation enterprises in Ukraine across two distinct periods: the current state of martial law and the subsequent phase of post-war reconstruction. The authors have built a model for selecting optimal strategies for the development of a transport enterprise on the basis of a multi-level hierarchy of priority growth goals in two periods. As strategic alternatives, the authors have chosen the "strategy of limited growth"; "strategy of concentrated growth"; "strategy of diversified growth"; "strategy of integrated growth"; and "combined strategy". The paper determines that the appropriate growth strategies for transport enterprises during the period of martial law would be: a strategy of limited growth (rank 1.827) and a combined strategy (rank 2.0980). In the period of post-war reconstruction, the following growth strategies will be appropriate for implementation: concentrated growth (rank 3.0151) and integrated growth (rank 2.6783). The publication proposes a set of possible options for practical management actions in various functional areas of the transport enterprise (financial, organisational, marketing, social, technological, environmental) in accordance with the defined development strategies under martial law and post-war reconstruction. The practical application of the methodological approach to strategic management of transport enterprises in the context of economic uncertainty developed in the article will help to preserve domestic transport companies in the conditions of war and increase their competitiveness in the post-war period. The comprehensive implementation of the identified strategies will contribute to the development of innovative technologies, as well as European social and environmental transport standards in Ukraine.