Explainable artificial intelligence models for predicting pregnancy termination among reproductive-aged women in six east African countries: machine learning approach

Abstract Pregnancy termination remains a complex and sensitive issue with approximately 45% of abortions worldwide being unsafe, and 97% of abortions occurring in developing countries. Unsafe pregnancy terminations have implications for women’s reproductive health. This research aims to compare black box models in their prediction of pregnancy termination among reproductive-aged women and identify factors associated with pregnancy termination using explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods. We used comprehensive secondary data on reproductive-aged women’s demographic and socioeconomic data from the Demographic Health Survey (DHS) from six countries in East Africa in the analysis. This study implemented five black box ML models, Bagging classifier, Random Forest, Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) Classifier, CatBoost Classifier, and Extra Trees Classifier on a dataset with 338,904 instances and 18 features. Additionally, SHAP, Eli5, and LIME XAI techniques were used to determine features associated with pregnancy termination and Statistical analysis were employed to understand the distribution of pregnancy termination. The results demonstrated that machine learning algorithms were able to predict pregnancy termination on DHS data with an overall accuracy ranging from 79.4 to 85.6%. The ML classifier random forest achieved the highest result, with an accuracy of 85.6%. Based on the results of the XAI tool, the most contributing factors for pregnancy termination are wealth index, current working experience, and source of drinking water, sex of household, education level, and marital status. The outcomes of this study using random forest is expected to significantly contribute to the field of reproductive healthcare in East Africa and can assist healthcare providers in identifying individuals’ countries at greater risk of pregnancy termination, allowing for targeted interventions and support.