The impact of enterprise markups on changes in the CPI in Poland

The aim of the study is to present the impact of enterprise markups by sections on changes in the CPI in Poland in the years 2008–2023. The VAR model was developed to reveal the interdependencies between changes in markups in nine major sections of non-financial corporations and changes in the CPI. The results of the model, the impulse response function and the variance decomposition confirmed the differentiated impact of markups on inflation changes. To the greatest extent, changes in the CPI, as much as 30%, were explained by the markups of enterprises in real estate services (L), and mining and quarrying (B) sections. The least pro-inflationary contribution to the CPI explanation was shown by markups from information and communication (J), water supply, sewage and waste management, reclamation (E), trade and repair of motor vehicles (G) and the generation and supply of electricity, gas, steam, and hot water D (less than 1%). The degree of explanation of the CPI by markups projected in the variance decomposition increased in the short term (to 26% in the 1st year), stabilizing at a higher level (35% in the years 3–5) in the medium and long term.