The Bright Future of Liberal Democracy Explained through Revisited Modernization Theory

Abstract Many think that liberal democracy is currently under attack. This view leads to considering modernization theory as a fallacy because economic development indicators show that authoritarian economies continue to grow. This study challenges this idea and attempts to update modernization theory. We argue that not mere economic development is a requirement of liberal democracy, as initially advanced, but economic liberalization is. Economic development induces democratization only if it is accompanied by economic liberalization. This phenomenon occurs because economic development in free-market terms, accompanied by economic liberalization, not only produces socioeconomic consequences, as shown by classic modernization theory, but also institutional outcomes, such as legal restraints on political power. To update modernization theory, we propose revisiting other prerequisites. Social modernization supposes that education levels will increase, and secularization will change attitudes toward political power and sociocentered (non-liberal) values, which will serve as a prerequisite for democratization. The modernization of communication technologies makes people more independent of the government, which gives them more influence over the state. Thus, it plays a democratizing role. Finally, ecological modernization, particularly energy market modernization, will have a significant democratizing role because it will directly affect rentiers’ authoritarianism. These prerequisites not only demonstrate positive trends but also suggest that they continue to progress, which makes it possible to conclude that democracy has a bright future.