Analysis of Synergistic Drivers of CO2 and NOX Emissions from Thermal Power Generating Units in Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region, 2010–2020

Synergistic control of the emissions of air pollutants and CO2 is critical to the dual challenges of air quality improvement and climate change in China. Based on the emission inventories of thermal power units in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei, this study analyzes the CO2 and NOX emission characteristics of these units, and identifies and quantifies the synergistic drivers affecting these emission trends. The inventory data show that, between 2010 and 2020, NOX emissions were reduced by 86.1%, while CO2 emissions were reduced by only 29.8%. Although significant progress has been made in reducing NOX emissions through measures such as end-of-pipe treatment, controlling CO2 emissions remains a difficult task. The index decomposition analysis reveals that economic growth is the main driver of CO2 and NOX emission growth, energy intensity reduction is the main driver of CO2 emission reduction, and end-of-pipe treatment is the main driver of NOX emission reduction. Currently, coal occupies about 87% of the energy consumption of thermal power units in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, and remains the main type of energy for synergistic emissions, and the potential for emission reduction in the energy structure remains huge. For NOX emissions, it is expected that 90% of the reduction potential can be achieved through energy restructuring and end-of-pipe treatment. In conclusion, this high-precision unit-by-unit emission study confirms the effectiveness of the control policy for thermal power units in the region and provides some scientific reference for future policy formulation.