KGDA: A Knowledge Graph Driven Decomposition Approach for Cellular Traffic Prediction

Understanding and accurately predicting cellular traffic data is vital for communication operators and device users, as it facilitates efficient resource allocation and ensures superior service quality. However, large-scale cellular traffic data forecasting remains challenging due to intricate temporal variations and complex spatial relationships. This article proposes a Knowledge Graph Driven Decomposition Approach (KGDA) for precise cellular traffic prediction. The KGDA breaks down the impact of static environmental factors and dynamic autocorrelations of cellular traffic time series, enabling the capture of overall traffic changes and understanding of traffic dependence on past values. Specifically, we propose an urban knowledge graph to capture the static environmental context of base stations, mapping these entities into the same latent space while retaining static environmental knowledge. The cellular traffic is divided into a regular pattern and fluctuating residual components, with the KGDA comprising four modules: a Knowledge Graph Representation Learning model, a traffic regular pattern prediction module, a traffic residual dynamic prediction module, and an attentional fusion module. The first leverages graph neural networks to extract spatial contexts and predict regular patterns, the second utilizes the Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) model to capture autocorrelations of traffic time series, and the final module integrates the patterns and residuals to produce the final prediction result. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that our proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art models by more than 10% in forecasting cellular traffic.