Solving the Brazilian Amazon land use land cover puzzle: four steps to ensuring conservation, justice, and sustainable development.

Abstract Brazil emerged as an agricultural powerhouse in the last four decades, producing 33% of the world’s soybeans and 14% of its beef. Historically, much of that growth has come at the expense of its native ecosystems. A growing body of work suggests this paradigm is outdated and brings negative social and environmental outcomes. Here, we provide an integrated analysis of an alternate pathway to solve this puzzle based on a scenario of land-use allocation governance. We compare it with a business-as-usual scenario through the lens of cost, revenues, and impact. The path forward is based on four fronts that can reduce deforestation while increasing production and social well-being. First, allocate undesignated public forests as protected areas and improve the management of new and existing ones. This first strategy would generate a positive return, and foster recognition of human rights, cultural preservation, and improved livelihoods. Second, prevent legal deforestation on private lands and promote compliance with Brazil's Native Vegetation Protection Law (Brasil, 2012) through restoration, also generating positive returns and directing the region towards a zero-deforestation future. Third, promote sustainable intensification of medium and large farms. It would allow Brazil to achieve its agricultural production targets while freeing land up for soy expansion and restoration. Fourth, improve technical assistance and increase market access and income of smallholders while reducing deforestation pressure on family farms. Implementing these fronts requires a coordinated effort between public and private institutions. Still, it would reestablish Brazil`s global leadership in managing natural resources and mitigating climate change.