Analysis of Rainfall Trends and Change Point Detection in Kodagu District, Karnataka

This study aims to analyze the long-term trends and Change Point Detection in monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall in Kodagu district, Karnataka, from 1950 to 2023. The Wallis and Moore Phase-Frequency test was employed to assess the randomness of the rainfall, while the linear regression trend line, Mann-Kendall (MK) test, and Modified-Mann Kendall (MMK) test were used to identify trends in the rainfall data. The MMK test revealed a significant increasing trend in rainfall during August (2.34 mm year-1) and September (1.78 mm year-1). Conversely, the other months, as well as the seasonal and annual rainfall, showed no significant trends. The Buishand U test identified August, September, and the monsoon season in the year 2003 as the trend change points, with no significant change points detected for the other months, seasons, or annual rainfall. This study helps to understanding regional climate variability, identifying significant trends, and detecting shifts in rainfall patterns, which are essential for informed water resource management, agricultural planning, and climate resilience strategies in the region.