Multidimensional Sleep Profiles via Machine learning and Risk of Dementia and Cardiovascular Disease

Abstract Importance Sleep health comprises several dimensions such as duration and fragmentation of sleep, circadian activity, and daytime behavior. Yet, most research has focused on individual sleep characteristics. Studies are needed to identify sleep profiles incorporating multiple dimensions and to assess how different profiles may be linked to adverse health outcomes. Objective To identify actigraphy-based 24-hour sleep/circadian profiles in older men and to investigate whether these profiles are associated with the incidence of dementia and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events over 12 years. Design Data came from a prospective sleep study with participants recruited between 2003-2005 and followed until 2015-2016. Setting Multicenter population-based cohort study. Participants Among the 3,135 men enrolled, we excluded 331 men with missing or invalid actigraphy data and 137 with significant cognitive impairment at baseline, leading to a sample of 2,667 participants. Exposures Leveraging 20 actigraphy-derived sleep and circadian activity rhythm variables, we determined sleep/circadian profiles using an unsupervised machine learning technique based on multiple coalesced generalized hyperbolic mixture modeling. Main Outcomes and Measures Incidence of dementia and CVD events. Results We identified three distinct sleep/circadian profiles: active healthy sleepers (AHS; n=1,707 (64.0%); characterized by normal sleep duration, higher sleep quality, stronger circadian rhythmicity, and higher activity during wake periods), fragmented poor sleepers (FPS; n=376 (14.1%); lower sleep quality, higher sleep fragmentation, shorter sleep duration, and weaker circadian rhythmicity), and long and frequent nappers (LFN; n=584 (21.9%); longer and more frequent naps, higher sleep quality, normal sleep duration, and more fragmented circadian rhythmicity). Over the 12-year follow-up, compared to AHS, FPS had increased risks of dementia and CVD events (Hazard Ratio (HR)=1.35, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.02-1.78 and HR=1.32, 95% CI=1.08-1.60, respectively) after multivariable adjustment, whereas LFN showed a marginal association with increased CVD events risk (HR=1.16, 95% CI=0.98-1.37) but not with dementia (HR=1.09, 95%CI=0.86-1.38). Conclusion and Relevance We identified three distinct multidimensional profiles of sleep health. Compared to healthy sleepers, older men with overall poor sleep and circadian activity rhythms exhibited worse incident cognitive and cardiovascular health. These results highlight potential targets for sleep interventions and the need for more comprehensive screening of poor sleepers for adverse outcomes. Key Points Question: Are there distinct sleep/circadian profiles in older men, and if so, are they associated with the incidence of dementia and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events over 12 years? Findings: Three actigraphy-based profiles were identified: active healthy sleepers AHS, fragmented poor sleepers FPS, and long and frequent nappers LFN. Compared to AHS, FPS had increased risks of dementia and CVD events whereas LFN had marginal risk of CVD events. Meaning: Older men with distinct sleep/circadian profiles are at increased risk of incident dementia and CVD events, suggesting their potential as target populations for sleep interventions and screening for adverse outcomes.