Hydrological Modelling and Its Implication in Sustainable Water Resource Management in Gumti River Basin in Bangladesh

Sustainable water resource management in Bangladeshs Gumti River Basin faces challenges from climate change, urbanization, and population growth. This study aimed to calibrate and validate the HEC-HMS model for the Gumti River to enhance flood prediction and water resource planning. The model was set up using precipitation, temperature, and discharge data from 2019-2021, with SRTM elevation data for catchment delineation. Manual calibration was performed for 2019-2020, followed by validation for 2021, using parameters such as Muskingum routing and SCS Curve Number. Model performance was evaluated using R², Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), RSR, and PBIAS metrics. Results showed satisfactory to good performance, with R² values of 0.64 and 0.68 for calibration and validation, respectively. NSE values were within the satisfactory range, while PBIAS indicated very good performance with slight underestimation. The study concludes that the calibrated HEC-HMS model provides a reliable tool for simulating the Gumti Rivers hydrology, though theres room for improvement. Integration with flood frequency analysis, water quality monitoring, and climate change projections is recommended for comprehensive water resource management, alongside the implementation of Sustainable Water Resource Management principles and community engagement strategies.