Influence of Intrinsic Oceanic Variability Induced by a Steady Flow on the Mediterranean Sea Level Variability

Among the most debated environmental effects of global warming is sea level rise, whose consequences are believed to exert a large influence on vast coastal areas in the next decades and hence contribute to determining near-future societal developments. The observed variability of the sea level is complex, as it is composed of large inhomogeneous, mostly nonlinear temporal and spatial fluctuations. In the Mediterranean Sea, multiannual as well as multidecadal sea level variability is observed, which has been ascribed to different steric and non-steric phenomena. Possible tipping points, uncertain climate feedback, and future human policies contribute to rendering sea level rise predictability intricate. Here, for the first time, correlations between observed and simulated data demonstrates that, in the Mediterranean Sea, oceanic intrinsic variability merely induced by the steady motion of the water masses inflowing and outflowing the basin is able to produce multiannual, sub-basin SSH variability consistent with altimetrically observed SSH. This study contributes to the recognition of the role played by steadily induced oceanic intrinsic variability in the observed long-term Mediterranean dynamics and paves the way to establish a better constraint to the uncertainties inherent in sea level rise predictability.