Deal or No Deal: Voting on Multiple Provision Ballot Measures

Ballot propositions provide an instance of direct democracy in which voters have a say in a state’s legislative process. However, voters vary in how they understand and evaluate these measures, many of which can be complicated and comprised of multiple provisions. Are voters deliberate legislators, or do they instead rely on heuristics to guide their final decision? When multiple provisions exist within a single proposition, how do voters weigh their varying support of provisions in their calculus of overall support for the proposition? To examine these questions, we conduct a novel survey utilizing three real ballot measures under consideration during 2022. By experimentally assigning how we ask respondents for their support of a given ballot proposition, we garner insight into how voters approach voting on ballots and their greater decision-making process. We find evidence of a negativity bias, which is strongest on the most complex and least polarized issue