Agricultural Vulnerability to Climate Change: A quantitative assessment for Odisha

Odisha is considered one of the most vulnerable states in India, as recurrent climatic events strike it almost every year. The quantum of agricultural damage from floods and drought is colossal. The farming community, dominated by small and marginal landholders, are more vulnerable because of their weak coping capacity. The climate extremes are progressive and increasingly frequent. For agriculture to progress and sustain itself in such a scenario, the vulnerability of agriculture in the state needs to be comprehensively assessed. The study was primarily a district-level analysis, employing the IPCC framework and evaluating the degree of vulnerability by measuring three dimensions: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Using secondary data from 17 indicators, the study constructed indices for three dimensions separately and finally arrived at the overall vulnerability index. Based on their exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity index scores, Jharsuguda, Bolangir, and Bhadrak were identified as the three most vulnerable districts. Conversely, Koraput, Kandhamal, and Malkangiri were found to be the three least vulnerable districts. Regarding exposure to different vulnerability-causing factors, Bolangir, Jharsuguda, and Subarnapur were at the top. Khorda, Balasore, and Bhadrak recorded high sensitivity scores. Despite the high scores of exposure and sensitivity, some districts showed high adaptive capacity to reduce the overall vulnerability score. It suggests that boosting adaptive capacity is a major driver in reducing agriculture vulnerability. The general pattern was that northern districts are more exposed to climate shocks, whereas coastal districts are highly sensitive. The districts from the central region, such as Angul, Koraput, Kandhamal, and Kalahandi, are less vulnerable. The drivers for these index scores will help formulate district-specific measures to make farmers and overall agriculture less vulnerable.