Lessons from Hubble and Spitzer: 1D Self-consistent Model Grids for 19 Hot Jupiter Emission Spectra

Abstract We present a population-level analysis of the dayside thermal emission spectra of 19 planets observed with Hubble WFC3 and Spitzer IRAC 3.6 and 4.5 μ m, spanning equilibrium temperatures 1200–2700 K and 0.7–10.5 Jupiter masses. We use grids of planet-specific 1D, cloud-free, radiative–convective–thermochemical equilibrium models (1D-RCTE) combined with a Bayesian inference framework to estimate atmospheric metallicity, the carbon-to-oxygen ratio, and day-to-night heat redistribution. In general, we find that the secondary eclipse data cannot reject the physics encapsulated within the 1D-RCTE assumption parameterized with these three variables. We find a large degree of scatter in atmospheric metallicities, with no apparent trend, and carbon-to-oxygen ratios that are mainly consistent with solar or subsolar values but do not exhibit population agreement. Together, these indicate either (1) formation pathways vary over the hot and ultra-hot Jupiter population and/or (2) more accurate composition measurements are needed to identify trends. We also find a broad scatter in derived dayside temperatures that do not demonstrate a trend with equilibrium temperature. Like with composition estimates, this suggests either significant variability in climate drivers over the population and/or more precise dayside temperature measurements are needed to identify a trend. We anticipate that 1D-RCTE models will continue to provide valuable insights into the nature of exoplanet atmospheres in the era of JWST.