The protective role of canopy cover against cork oak decline in the face of climate change

Abstract Cork oak ( Quercus suber L.) mortality has reached alarming proportions in the last decades, exacerbated by climate change. Understanding this phenomenon is crucial in finding mitigation or adaptation strategies. This study conducts a diachronic analysis of cork oak mortality over 10 years using GIS (Geographic Information Systems) tools, focusing on Portugal’s Tagus Lezíria region. Topographic, edaphic and climatic variables were employed to create maps of edaphoclimatic aptitude for cork oaks. Dead trees were identified using remote sensing techniques and crown coverage was determined to calculate the trees’ mortality index. The diachronic analysis aimed the exploration of climate change effects on cork oak mortality. A decrease in precipitation was observed, significantly impacting stands with canopy cover below 40%. Furthermore, a negative effect of solar radiation identified only in stands with canopy cover of 40% suggested its role in cork oak decline. This study introduces a novel perspective, highlighting the protective effect of denser canopy cover against excessive solar radiation and the impact of reduced precipitation. The integrated and diachronic approach provides valuable information for adapting management strategies to climate change challenges.