Russia faces mounting challenges in the Arctic

Significance Moscow’s progress towards achieving its stated goals in the High North -- especially the development of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the exploitation of its natural resources -- has been complicated by Western sanctions imposed since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine and the prospective increase in defence cooperation among other Arctic nations. Impacts Moscow will seek to implement Arctic projects and ensure that the war in Ukraine does not adversely impact development timelines. The Kremlin will promote cooperation in the Arctic with ‘friendly’ countries, primarily China and India. Other Arctic states will continue to negotiate with Russia in multilateral fora, such as the Arctic Council.