A weakest link theory‐based probabilistic fatigue life prediction method for the turbine disc considering the influence of the number of critical sections

Abstract This study utilizes the rank correlation coefficient to examine the multi‐site failure correlation of turbine discs. Drawing from the stress‐strength interference model, reliability models both with and without factoring in the multi‐site failure correlation are constructed. Furthermore, the weakest link theory (WLT) within the context of the Weibull distribution function is invoked to develop a model for predicting the fatigue life of turbine discs, taking into account the quantity of critical sections. The variability in the low cycle fatigue (LCF) of turbine discs is scrutinized, leading to the formulation of a probabilistic fatigue life prediction method for these discs. When comparing theoretical values with experimental ones, it becomes evident that factoring in the multi‐site failure correlation significantly enhances the accuracy of turbine disc life predictions.