The Demographic Transition in China: The Evidence from Survey Data

Using the CGSS, we estimate the fertility rate in the Chinese mainland and stratified the eleven groups by year of birth, the four groups by hukou and five groups by education levels. Our study shows that the first demographic transition to replacement level happened in the 1980s, the second to low fertility rate of 1.5 took place in around 2000. There are different patterns of demographic transition among people with different hukou or education levels. Permanent residents in urban regions and people with college degrees have irreversible fertility rate of about 1.0. The policy implication is that the government should concentrate resources and support the people with the higher fertility intention.