Policy Analysis on Increasing Rice Production in Lampung Province Using a System Dynamics Model Approach

Lampung Province has an important role in fulfilling the need for rice as a staple food in Indonesia. Lampung is ranked sixth as a national rice producer with production reaching 2,604,913 tons. Problems in the production subsystem cause a decrease in rice stocks which will have an impact on not fulfilling the need for public rice consumption. The shift in the use of paddy fields from agriculture to non-agricultural sectors is one of the causes of the decline in rice production. This is further exacerbated by the low planting rate and rice productivity that has not reached the optimal level. Based on this phenomenon, this study aims to develop and validate a system dynamics model to design strategies to increase rice production in Lampung Province. The model in this study has been tested for validity using the Root Mean Square Percentage Error (RMSPE) calculation method. The test results state that the difference between the values calculated by the model and the actual values is greater than 5% and smaller than 10%. Therefore, it can be said that the modeling is valid and accurate. The results of system modeling with the design of scenarios 1, 2, and 3 at moderate and optimistic levels concluded that an increase in rice production can be achieved in the optimistic scenario 3, namely an increase in rice productivity to 5.73 tons/hectare (optimistic level).