Regional Assessment of Groundwater Contamination Risk from Crude Oil Spillages in the Niger Delta: A Novel Application of the Source-Pathway-Receptor Model

Abstract Onshore oil spills are known for their disastrous environmental impacts and potential to cause lasting damage to underlying groundwater. The Niger Delta is particularly vulnerable to widespread spillages linked to extensive oil exploration, transportation, and theft-related incidents. This research employed a geospatial approach in formulating risk equations, based on the source-pathway-receptor (S-P-R) model using multiple openly available data sets, to assess groundwater contamination risk in the Niger Delta Region (NDR), Nigeria. To develop the overall risk equation, the study combined fourteen thematic data layers including the volume of oil spilled, type of spill, slope, elevation, proximity to spill site, pipeline, oil wells and streams, drainage density, mean annual precipitation and population density. These layers were integrated into source potency, pathway transmissivity, and receptor susceptibility. The NDR was systematically categorized into low, moderate, and high groundwater risk zones. The delineation revealed that high-risk zones predominantly span the central areas, extending from southeast to northwest, effectively encircled by regions of low to medium risk located in both the northern and southern extents of the delta. The efficacy of the risk model was corroborated by existing knowledge. Moderate to high-risk zones were found to be in about 16% of the NDR, revealing previously unknown areas of risk. This spatial configuration underscores a significant gradient in contamination risk across the NDR, with the central corridor emerging as a critical focus for groundwater protection and remediation efforts. In line with UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) #6, this study recommends targeted strategies to ensure clean water provision in these identified high-risk areas. By leveraging the S-P-R model within this complex and sensitive ecological area, this research both advances environmental risk assessment and sets a precedent for future large-scale environmental risk assessments utilizing open-source data.