Analyzing Timber Trade in Brazil: assessing timber networks and supply chains

Abstract Brazilian Amazon forest degradation is driven by factors such as fire, mining, and notably, illegal logging. The Brazilian government has implemented control mechanisms to combat illegal timber extraction that have positively impacted deforestation rates. Under these regulations, any wood product, from raw logs to processed lumber, must be registered in control systems before transportation. This allows for analyzing the volume of wood products moving between each pair of timber companies within a specified timeframe. A challenge in this context is the existence of three different and only partially integrated control systems, making the comprehensive analysis of the entire timber market difficult. In this work, we integrate timber transportation data from the three different systems, enabling the creation of what we refer to as Timber Trade Networks (TTNs). From the TTNs, one can identify companies or groups of companies that operate contrary to expected standards, raising suspicions about their compliance with legal regulations. Furthermore, we propose a method to compute probable supply chains of timber companies, addressing a critical traceability challenge that has long concerned the Brazilian government. Among the results, we show that certain TTNs have components that operate without connections with licensed forests, suggesting that unregistered timber is input into those components, which is illegal. Additionally, we illustrate how supply chain analysis can significantly enhance customer confidence in the legality of purchased timber products.