Dynamic evolution of the ecological footprint of arable land in the Yellow and Huaihai Main grain producing area based on structural equation modeling and analysis of driving factors

Arable land is shrinking, and the ecological strain on such land is growing daily. To ensure its sustainability, uncovering the dynamic changes and driving forces is crucial. We assessed the arable land ecological footprint (CEF) in the Yellow and Huaihai main grain-producing areas from 2010 to 2020, employing ecological and productive footprint analyses. Additionally, we built a structural equation model for per capita CEF in the Yellow and Huaihai main grain-producing area, incorporating China's ecological economic theory and the economic-social-ecological structural system to identify influencing factors. Our findings indicate the following: (1) CEF in area showed a fluctuating upward trend during 2010–2020, while the ecological carrying capacity of arable land decreased, resulting in ecological surplus, except in 2017; (2) arable land's sustainable pressure index increased, signifying low ecological safety in the Yellow and Huaihai main grain producing area, and the sustainable efficiency index decreased, indicating resource efficiency improvements; and (3) the structural equation model reveals that arable land output, ecological conditions, socioeconomics, and resource inputs all impact per capita ecological footprints in the respective order. Our results offer valuable insights for securing national food sustainability and preserving arable land.