Managing China-US tensions will remain key in Asia

Significance The summit highlighted persistent regional divisions on the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts, as well as the continued desire of South-east Asian states not to pick sides between Washington and Beijing. Tensions remain over Taiwan and are rising in the South China Sea, stoking fears of a potential conflict. Impacts The US-Chinese defence ministers' bilateral meeting at SLD incrementally reduces the risk of miscalculation leading to conflict. Regional states’ reluctance to align collectively with US initiatives means that Beijing probably regards its own strategies as sustainable. A potential second US presidential term for Donald Trump may undermine Washington’s regional alliances and defence obligations.