Predictions for Sparse Photometry of Jupiter-family Comet Nuclei in the LSST Era

Abstract The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) at Vera C. Rubin Observatory will deliver high-quality, temporally sparse observations of millions of solar system objects on an unprecedented scale. Such data sets will likely enable the precise estimation of small-body properties on a population-wide basis. In this work, we consider the possible applications of photometric data points from LSST to the characterization of Jupiter-family comet (JFC) nuclei. We simulate sparse-in-time lightcurve points with an LSST-like cadence for the orbit of a JFC between 2024 and 2033. Convex lightcurve inversion is used to assess whether the simulation input parameters can be accurately reproduced for a sample of nucleus rotation periods, pole orientations, activity onsets, shapes, and sizes. We find that the rotation period and pole direction can be reliably constrained across all nucleus variants tested, and that the convex shape models, while limited in their ability to describe complex or bilobed nuclei, are effective for correcting sparse photometry for rotational modulation to improve estimates of nucleus phase functions. Based on this analysis, we anticipate that LSST photometry will significantly enhance our present understanding of the spin state and phase function distributions of JFC nuclei.