A Forecast Model for Assessing the Level of Financial and Economic Potential of an Industrial Enterprise For

The article is devoted to the problem of forecasting the level of industrial enterprises financial and economic potential as a strategically important management tool for the need to adapt to internal and external market changes. The implementation of the forecast model using the adaptive method of forecasting economic time series is proposed: the model of exponential smoothing of the time series. During the implementation, the integral indicator of financial and economic potential level was calculated, the choice of the forecasting method was justified, the quality of the smoothing model and the reliability of the obtained forecast values were evaluated, and the interpretation of the forecasting results was also given. The research was conducted on the basis of a comprehensive assessment using integral indicators of financial and economic potential level, namely its components (budgetary-resource, financial-investment, security-oriented, loan, (corporate, credit-market, investment, innovative-technological and risk-adaptive) according to the criterion of established benchmarks and the application of the adaptive model of economic time series forecasting, exponential smoothing of the Holt series, which made it possible to establish the trends of the indicator change (decrease, increase or significant fluctuations). Based on this, the parameters of the forecasting model were systematized for each research object and the value of the average absolute percentage error with the provision of appropriate recommendations for ensuring stability and increasing their financial and economic potential in the long term. The practical value of the proposed theoretical and methodological approach is the possibility of using calculations of the integral indicator of financial and economic potential level of industrial enterprises as an information base formation of an adaptive management mechanism that will allow business entities to successfully face external challenges and internal threats, will ensure their stability and competitiveness in the market.