Strategizing Russia's economic presence in the Arctic

Global warming is the most important trend shaping the development of the Arctic, influencing international relations and economic landscapes under new geopolitical conditions. Currently, the Arctic is opening up for the development of natural resources, primarily energy, and the construction of new transportation networks. These developments form the basis for the Arctic's integration within Russia's maritime framework. The evolving geopolitical positioning of the Arctic underscores the importance of diverse scientific research, guiding its goals and directions. Russia’s economic presence in the Arctic is a key component of strategic planning for the periods 2024–2030 and until 2035. This presence is directly influenced by the dynamics of Arctic ice formation and melting, as well as the achievement of development milestones for the Northern Sea Route (NSR). This article addresses a practical question: to what extent is global warming a permanent factor in enabling year-round navigation along the NSR to support sustainable maritime business activities in the region? The 2022 Maritime Doctrine positions Russia as a leading maritime power, with the Arctic playing a central role in national maritime activities, as this is the region where the country's maritime strengths are most clearly visible. The effectiveness of maritime business activities in the Arctic is reflected in the increasing cargo turnover along the NSR, driven by domestic investments, primarily in energy projects. These activities are shaped by the cyclical fluctuations in Arctic ice formation and melting, defining navigation along the NSR in the current geopolitical and economic context.